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The
market has come to a dead stop, and that's a good thing. Just think a couple of weeks ago if the durable goods report missed the mark stocks would be
selling off. Couple that shocking spike in crude oil and it's easy to imagine the Dow being off 100 + points.
> Crude inventories up 7.3
million barrels against consensus of a draw of 1.7 million. > Gas inventories up 91,000 barrels, the Street was looking for a build of
275,000. > Distillate inventories were up 938,000, consensus was for a build of 2.0 million.
This kind of build doesn't paint a healthy
picture of the economy. Coupled with a disappointing report on durable goods it reflects a cautious economy at best, or one that has run out of steam
at worst.

I can't believe the market is
waiting for the beige book report but that could make or break the session. So far there is only spotty action in names like Research in Motion
(RIMM), which is rumored to be ready to unveil its iPhone Killer. A successful auction of 5-year Treasury notes raised $37.0 billion with a high yield
of 1.79% and bid to cover of 3.06, up from its recent average of 2.66. The news nudged the market, but hasn't pulled it out of its slumber.
I
get the sense the market wants to move higher, but it needs a catalyst. It could be that beige book report, although it normally doesn't move the
market much.
Anecdotal Signs of Life
Today, Wyndham (WYN) posted earnings of $0.51 per share versus $0.39 per share a
year ago as revenue climbed 5% to $963.0 million. The company sees full year revenue per available room (RevPar) at flat to +3%. Business segments
include Timeshares (49%), Vacation Exchange and Rentals (31%), and Lodging (20%). Ironically, the hotel, which operates discount hotels, is bringing
up the rear as more expensive chains are seeing even faster growth.
* Marriott (MAR) sees 4% to 6% RevPar * Starwood (HOT) sees 7% to 9%
RevPar
The industry is a good proxy for consumer travel but more importantly business travel.
Take this Boycott
and...
Although there is no doubt the state of Arizona has lost business from boycotts based on its immigration law, the state is holding
up better than expected. Overall hotel business was +5.7% in May and +8.3% in June, while Phoenix enjoyed 106% growth and Scottsdale 10.7%. The state
brought in $148.0 million in hotel business in June...up 11% year over year. Investments from California into the state will create up to 3,000 jobs.
Let's keep our powder dry for the rest of the session.
How to Read an Earnings Report By: Brian Sozzi, Equity
Research Analyst
The role of analyst has, without question, spilled over into my personality (insert "lol) so I figured I would provide you,
John Doe investor, with insights into how I think when tasked with breaking down an earnings report. I will be using footwear maker Timberland (TBL)
as my guinea pig. The word "masked" was uttered frequently by the CEO of Timberland on the earnings call, and was even acknowledged in the 8-K.
"Masked" in this case was used to draw investor attention away from a $13.2 million charge to operating earnings related to two small brands in the
Timberland portfolio and instead shift gaze to the underlying fundamentals. When fixated upon, it's apparent that the fundamental narrative at
Timberland continues to improve; 2Q10 was yet another feather in a cap that began to accrue feathers in the latter stages of 2009. The turnaround in
the core areas of the business and an attractive valuation profile (relative and compared to own historical), are the primary reasons underpinning our
positive weighting on Timberland shares.
Please visit www.wstreet.com to read remainder of
piece.
Hotels are Alive By: Conley Turner, Research Analyst
The performance of a number of operators in the lodging
sector has been impressive in the session, suggesting that investors are taking positions in select names like Starwood and Wyndham. Through the first
half of 2010, the domestic hotel industry has experienced steady improvement in demand which was in tandem with the improvement in consumer sentiment.
There has historically been a positive correlation between the performance of the industry and consumer sentiment.
From the major operators who
have reported earnings thus far, business travel is definitely up versus prior year levels, with the upper upscale and luxury hotel brands benefitting
most. This is typical during the lodging cycle, where the upscale brands are most affected during downturns but are the first to benefit from a
recovery.
The leisure segment is also trending well due to an increase in domestic and international travelers. However, it is definitely not
as robust as with the business demographic. Hotel operators are experiencing some level of pricing power which contrasts to the previous year.
However, it is important to note that the previous year was punctuated by heavy discounting and promotional activity.
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