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MARKET SLOWS, REFLECTS GLOBAL TRADE
ECONOMY HINTS HEALING IS UNDERWAY
BONDS OVERSHADOW STOCKS
TIME TO UNLEASH THE MILLIONAIRES (FINAL EDITION)
SLOW WALK TO FINISH LINE
WILD THINGS ARE OUT THERE (FINAL EDITION)
SLOW DAY
GOOD NEWS BEYOND GREEN SHOOTS (FINAL EDITION)
BLAME IT ON THE WEATHER
JOBS MARKET DATA SUPPORTS POSITIVE TONE OF WEEK
 


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2010-01-29 01:01
THE GDP NUMBER NOT ENOUGH (A SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, HOWEVER)

The 5.7% GDP number was a positive surprise although I think that many people thought it would be this high. I even heard whispers of 6.0%. There will be much debate about the number, including how much reflected real demand and what happens when government spending runs dry. It's good news for the day but would have a bigger impact if it could be coupled with a strong jobs report next week. Despite the beat, recent trends are clear, and it wouldn't be a surprise that after revisions this number was simply "in line", maybe even below consensus. It makes me sick that Christina Romer ran out to tout the number; it shows insensitivity to Main Street because this report is decidedly not a report card on what's happening in American life.

Inventories were the bright spot, dropping at a $33.5 billion annual pace following a $139.2 billion pace in 3Q09. In short, the performance was just okay. Spending by the federal government offset drops in state and local spending, but consumer spending was not really there.

I had a chance to ask Commerce Secretary Gary Locke a couple of questions this morning about the initiatives to supposedly help small businesses. I asked about the notion of giving consumers a tax break to spark demand and got the standard answer that there was a tax cut for 95% of the country. I'm still not sure why the Administration doesn't get it. There are enough people working right now to get some demand going if all Americans could keep more of what they make. It's a very simple concept, too simple, perhaps. Most of this stuff is lip service, and the market is not only ignoring the hype and false promises but I think we've gotten to the point where even slightly good news is written off.

There were some positives on GDP but it's a tiny drop in the bucket, and it leaves the dilemma of where does end demand come from going forward.

GDP Notes:
* Consumer spending was up 2.0% for the quarter, down from 2.9% in 3Q09
* Foreign trade: +28.1%
* Equipment spending: +13.3%
* Residential investment: +5.6%
* Non-residential: -15.4%

Consumer Confidence

The Michigan Consumer Confidence report came in above consensus as the expectations component climbed off a three-month base, but still are below the recent high point established in September.

The Market

This week the most important number for the market is 10,200 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have straddled it all session long, but it's looking bleak going into the second half of trading for the session. The pressure in tech stocks continues to be shocking, sure there has been profit taking but it seems overdone.

I would like to highlight the Ultrashort S&P Proshares (SDS). At 10,200, the DJIA is on the verge of breaking through significant support. If that is violated, it leaves the index vulnerable to 9,700 or lower. I think that the market is oversold, but that doesn't mean it can't move even lower. The Ultrashort S&P Proshares is a defensive idea and it is good to have some downside protection.

  

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