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| 2010-09-01 09:36 |
SUMMER OF DYING SWANS
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"The woods
decay, the woods decay and fall,
The vapors weep their burthen to the ground,
Man comes and tills the field and lies beneath,
And after many
a summer dies the swan.
Me only cruel immortality
Consumers: I wither slowly in thine arms,
Here at the quiet limit of the world."
-Tennyson
Swan Dive
This has been a tough summer of the ultimate forms of discontent reflected in polls, surveys, the economy,
and the stock market. Pride is decaying like the woods in "Tithonus", and the stock market is dying like the swan. These may be symptoms, and the real
issue could be more akin to what Tithonus really wanted. In Roman mythology, he was granted immortality by Zeus, but in a fit of cruelness he was made
so old he could barely move. His imperfect gift became a curse. Adding to his misery, he could only gaze at his equally immortal goddess
lover.
According to interpretations of the poem, Tithonus bewailed his immortality that separated him from mortals. It's clear he wanted to
die. It makes me wonder if America is tired of being the richest and bravest nation on the planet and might just want to become mortal. Being the
super cop of the planet is expensive and thankless. The nation could never give away enough money or lives for other nations to even say "thank you."
The criticism is bad enough when it comes from ingrates, but worse when it echoes from within. Bill Clinton complains Americans haven't given enough
to the earthquake victims of Haiti. Yet, for a nation with almost 10% unemployment I think we have stepped up to the plate and will continue to do so,
and don't need to be prodded from a guy that just dropped $3.0 million on a wedding.
If Atlas shrugged, America is clearly bending over,
gasping for air and may need a pat on the back.
There is a chance we could be a nation that sees its place in the world as an imperfect gift,
maybe, even, a curse. Certainly, we are in more than just an economic slump. The Dow gave up almost 500 points in August, mostly a slow drain, almost
stealth-like. America has had many summers at number one, but finished August grappling with the dilemma of taking a dying swan and returning it to a
soaring eagle.
September Mourn
Septembers are tough, and we enter this one limping. There is a ton of economic data to
come out this week that could set the stage not just for the rest of the month, but rest of the year, too. In the meantime, banks are in worse shape
as the FDIC problem list continues to grow. The $30.0 billion community bank/small business bailout will mostly go to prop up these banks and go into
sofa cushions at other banks. If we step back from more schemes, banks will lend money. These massive spending programs have failed miserably, from
shovel-ready stimulus to the homebuyer tax credit to cash for clunkers.
Today's Session
The market begins September with the
enthusiasm of an Earth, Wind & Fire song. Even a disappointing report from ADP on employment hasn't stemmed the idea a change in the calendar could
bring a change in the fortunes of the stock market. In the last couple of years, Septembers have been up, but the month has a well-earned reputation
for havoc and crushing pullbacks. Let's face it, a large part of the August swoon wasn't because of the economy, although it's no great shakes, but to
an overall lack of confidence.
This morning, Alaska Senator Murkowski conceded defeat to Tea Party candidate Joe Miller, and even though
nobody will say this is influencing the stock market...investors are concerned citizens and they are happy with this news.
Economic
Data
ADP
The ADP private employment report, which is always a warm-up for the government report on Friday, showed a
decline of 10,000 private sector jobs in August. That follows two consecutive job gains in June and July. It's just more evidence pointing to that
potential double dip. Looking deeper, the service sector actually increased during the month (across all sizes of businesses from small to large) by
30,000 jobs. However, the goods producing sector was negative across the board, losing 40,000 jobs. Futures hardly flinched after the
report.
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Disclaimer: Securities Operations Forum is providing this research to assist investors in determining when to buy and when to sell. All investment decisions are yours and as a result you could make or lose money. Securities Operations Forum, its employees and/or its affiliates and family members may from time to time take positions in the open market or otherwise with respect to the securities discussed, but not have stock ownership equal to or greater than 1% of the outstanding stock of the covered company nor does any employee of Securities Operations Forum sit on the Board of Directors of any covered company. The statements made herein include information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The statements made herein contain general information and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. |
