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MAN UP
SUMMER OF DYING SWANS
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2009-06-08 09:45
STRANGE DAYS INDEED

NEW YORK, NY It was a strange week indeed, and a curious reaction to the jobs data that was itself beyond odd, only added further fuel to the fire. So, the question coming into this week is what will drive the market? This week there are a number of economic data releases but I think that the most influential ones will be Thursday's retail sales and Friday's consumer sentiment reading for June from the University of Michigan. Both of these releases will elaborate on the state of mind and willingness of consumers to spend money even as data continues to reflect a massive epiphany on the need for households to repair balance sheets. Known as a paradox of thrift, if people horde money (or in this case pay down debts) then the economy doesn't move. Many are hoping that somehow consumers are doing both. Of course, the "less bad" rationale is still working although not to the extent that it was a couple of months ago.

The market needs real "good" news. That could come from retail sales, where consensus is an expansion of 0.02% from -0.05% in the preceding release. In the meantime, all the major equity indices are on the cusp of breaking through big time resistance points. Throughout this entire period of climbing off the canvass a lack of volume has been problematic to me; I believe conviction is reflected in action and there simply hasn't been enough volume to get me to believe everyone feels as good as the headlines say we are feeling. Naturally, the masses move late and buy at the top, so in some respects it's pretty good that there is so much reluctance.

What is Fair?

If the Supreme Court agrees to hear the case of Indiana pension funds against the Chrysler reorganization plan it would be a big victory for the nation. There are so many things that are just plain wrong with the way the government has been allowed to orchestrate this so-called "surgical" procedure. It just felt like the fix was in from the very beginning as victory was all but assured. There are many people that believe Chrysler and General Motors (GM) should be saved at any cost. Many casual observers say that it's great and fair that an iconic American company will live on. To that end, all Americans want to see these companies survive, but at what price to the average person whose footing the (ever-increasing) tab? Moreover, this should be about what is lawful rather than what tugs at our heartstrings. Observations of laws have made America the land of the free.

So here are the issues:

Taking away the rights of secured lenders by offering greater rewards for unsecured creditors is outright wrong. There is no way that anyone could toss around the word fair while denying secured lenders their inherent rights. We aren't talking about greedy bond investors when we talk about the three Indiana pension funds putting up a fight for their rights and the rule of law. (Even if we were talking about greedy bond investors/speculators they have rights, too.)

VEBA (union) was awarded $0.43 on the dollar or $4.6 billion via a note paying 9% through 2022, and 55% of the reorganized entity.

Secured lenders were awarded just $0.29 on the dollar by Judge Gonzales who ripped those offended by the judgment by saying these lenders was the only party to get cash. That kind of rationale helped keep apartheid alive in South Africa, where proponents argued the native people there were making more money than their sub-Saharan brethren. Of course, Fiat had no skin in the game and got 20% (and will more than likely finish with 35% if the structure is allowed to stand) because so many Americans are clamoring for those itty bitty cars.

The use of TARP money to help fund part of the recovery is another farce and slap at the intelligence and the hard work of taxpayers. The precedent has been established for these funds to go into other non-banking industries.

Liabilities such as injury and wrongful death claims will be swept away with the "Old Chrysler" Yes, there is part of Chrysler that will languish in bankruptcy for a bit longer. There is no money in the company. The "New Chrysler" will only have to deal with warranty and lemon law issues so people out there looking for monetary justice from defects in Chrysler vehicles will simply be out of luck, even as their hard earned tax dollars are going to bailout out the company.

Then there is the notion that taxpayers should be on the hook at any cost, a notion that is completely unfair and unreasonable. The public has voiced tremendous opposition to the auto bailouts. Is it really a victory for the nation to take $100.0 billion and pour it into entities that allowed themselves decades ago to crumble? Consider the $50.0 billion and counting to General Motors. How will taxpayers ever get that money back?

General Motors Recent Financial History

Finally, there is the issue with failure. Failure is part of success, and the foundation of America. In addition to the mounds of money being shoveled to reward reckless behavior the innate and historic ability of Americans to climb off the canvass is being replaced by the notion that Mother Government will be there to ease the pain and level the playing field. Even if leveling the playing field means leveling laws, established rules, and gorging the public in order to achieve a political agenda.

Sunday School

We usually learn much on Sunday whether it's from a pastor or priest or from the newspapers and news broadcasts. My schooling on Sunday came from a trip into New York to make an appearance on the Fox News Channel. The street in front of the News Corp. building was closed for a street fair. The smells of that street food control me like a flute controls a King Cobra, so I drifted over to check it out. I didn't partake in any of the grub but I met two separate families. They weren't together but it turns out they were both visiting from Georgia. Another thing they had in common...they were thankful for Fox News as they all believed the walls were closing in on independent thought and criticism of the president and his policies. They are grateful Americans, but afraid of the direction of the nation.

I got into the car waiting to take me home and the driver asked if we could talk about politics. He had never seen me on television but was curious about a few things. From Pakistan, he has been in America since 1985. He was very happy that Obama was bridging the gap between America and the Middle East. He talked about going home every year to visit his mother who just passed away. (He talked about his special love for her and repeated over and over again how nice she was to him.) He says that people in Pakistan are still confused and not sure about America. But, most compelling was his observations about America. He still can't believe that a black man became president, and wonders what powerful people are behind him and what their motives are. He marveled even more about the opportunities here.

He came here penniless and now counts among his assets, his Lincoln, money in the bank, and children heading to college. He talked about driving a cab for 20 hours at a time and working his way up the economic ladder When he got here he didn't understand why they call this the land of opportunity...now he knows. Of all the things that mystified him none more so than people born in this country that don't find a way to work up the ladder of success. I'm inclined to share that confusion too, although I know a large part of the answer is rooted in legacies that haunt and hold people back. But, they should and do control the difference between failure and success, and sometimes it may mean driving a cab 20 hours a day. One thing all the people I met on Sunday taught me or reminded me is how great this country is and how much we all must fight to make sure it keeps getting even better.

  

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