I hope that everyone made it in today sober and clear-headed after what had to be a ruckus night of partying around the country to celebrate the first year anniversary of Stimulus I. Although I'd heard it all before, President Obama spoke yesterday with a little more animation and a little more amplification as if trying to breathe life into the string of stats he was rattling off to prove the success of Stimulus I. I think that he doth protest too much. If billions of dollars are poured into the economy the needle will move, but we are talking about $800.0 billion. There should be no need to explain what should be obvious. Instead, it seems the opposite is true. After the Evan Bayh shocker the item in the news that knocked me most was a CBS/NY Times poll on the stimulus plan. According to the poll, only 6% of Americans believe jobs were created from the plan! That is shocking stuff as there is no doubt those being polled have been vetted, and I'm sure lean sharply left.

So the Administration fanned out its team of high-ranking members to 35 communities to bang the drum, to convince a nation with 9.7% unemployment that things could have been worse. I don't get it. While the President is still popular, his agenda continues to slide, and in the process his messiah image, too. Core believers are core believers but the best way to keep independent-minded folks engaged isn't to layer on the sweet talk but to show and prove. I'm sure the faithful see the President much like the roman god Janus, god of gates, doors, beginnings, and endings. The images of Janus show a figure with two faces, one looking ahead the other looking behind. The Janus America elected only shows/uses one of these faces...the one that looks behind. Hey, maybe that's the face that reads the teleprompter best, who knows? But reminding us how bad it was does nothing to mask how ineffective year one has been.

Janus was also the patron of concrete and abstract beginnings. Well, there you go; it's hard to get more abstract than saved or created jobs. Of course at this point we are looking for concrete leadership and communication. There is nothing wrong with saying we messed up rather than engage in this dishonest game that even liberals are growing weary of. If I took at face value 2 million jobs were created from stimulus that still would be a poor use of $200.0 billion (spending awards on recovery.gov through December). Joe Biden said through January $350.0 billion in stimulus was spent (including tax breaks) which means those mythical jobs would cost about $160,000 each.

How many small businesses could turn their world around with that kind of funding? Just think how many jobs the average entrepreneur could have really created with those funds.

I believe overall confidence plays an important role in economic recovery and for that reason alone I would like to see the White House shift gears. Forget about looking back; the longer that excuse lingers the more it sounds like we elected a spoiled sport rather than someone prepared to get the job done. Moreover, stop bragging in general, and on occasion give Americans credit. There is such a thing as the business cycle and it works because America works. People want results. People are also understanding and also smarter than the left thinks. Pushing for another stimulus plan but not calling it "stimulus" is dishonest and confirms the first plan was supposed to be a jobs bill. It was supposed to be the mother of all job bills, or at least was sold that way. Money was redirected, there was pork spending, and it was a failure.

Just like TARP, the plan was designed to reach certain hot buttons. For TARP, it was about making sure banks continued to lend money. For Stimulus I, it was all about shovel-ready construction jobs. Even though the jobs mentioned in the sales pitch would be temporary it's hard for anyone to argue against giving an unemployed American a job. With that in mind, the thrust of the funds in the plan were never intended to focus on shovel-ready jobs. In fact, construction unemployment now hovers above 23%, or the same rate we are told overall employment would have gone if we didn't give big banks and failed businesses billions of dollars then top it off with a stimulus/jobs bill aimed to bolster union jobs and welfare payments. Since last January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than a million construction jobs have been lost.

The market cycle is working, and all the government needs to do is stay out of the way, stop with the cap and trade, healthcare reform, and consumer protection that only dry up credit to consumers. Stop with the taxes. Stop with the finger wagging and finger pointing. And please...stop with the blame Bush stuff. It's old already. It's time to open the door to listening to the nation and trying to build a new concrete beginning.

By the way the real cost of the Stimulus plan is $826.0 billion and climbing according to the CBO. Let's face it, the bigger cost is we just spend money for political goals and find ourselves in the same situation Greece is in but there will be nobody to come to our aid. These are taxpayer funds we are talking about and its time to stop all the convoluted schemes to get it back to the taxpayer. I actually think these schemes aren't sincere and in the end, why not give taxpayers and businesses tax holidays; I think it's the best and easiest way to help them and in the process help the nation.

Home Modification Bust

The government's mortgage modification program is working better but it's still a colossal failure, and something else that has to be rethought. Permanent modifications as a percentage of active trial modifications are surging, but it's a long way from the 4 million homes hinted when the program was unveiled. Moreover, it's expensive! *As of December, $35.5 billion had been tapped but only $15.4 million dispersed.

* http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/02/hamp-champ-what-ever-happened-to-that-obama-mortgage-modification-plan.html

The Fed made slight adjustments to its economic outlook for the next three years.

There is a shocking report out today from the Pew Center that says states face $2.73 trillion in obligations for retiree benefits. The problem is they don't have the money. I will go into more details on tomorrow morning's update.

Economic Data

Initial Jobless Claims

Jobless claims increased last week to 473,000 from 442,000, continuing somewhat of an alarming trend. The average number of claims of the last four weeks has been higher than it was a month ago, indicating that employment trends are not improving anymore, but may in fact be worsening again. The result also came in well above the consensus estimate of 440,000. The number of insured unemployed stayed flat at 4.6 million from the previous week.