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EQUITIES DOWN BUT NOT OUT
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2010-08-16 09:06
RELEASE THE MARINERS, MASONS, AND METALLURGISTS (FINAL EDITION)

I'm Hosting "Varney & Co." on the Fox Business Network today at 9:20- 11:00AM EST.

"Which was the more important personage in man's history, he who first led armies over the Alps...or the nameless boor who first hammered out for himself an iron spade? Laws themselves, political constitutions, are not out life, but only the house wherein our life is led; nay, they are but the bare walls of the house: all of whose essential furniture, the inventions and traditions and daily habits that regulate and support our existence, are the work not of Dracos and Hampdens, but of Phoenician mariners, of Italian masons and Saxon metallurgists, of philosophers, alchemists, prophets and all the long-forgotten trains of artist and artisans."

- Thomas Carlyle

A not so funny thing is happening on the way to the new era of Enlightenment, where today's Great Men will fix everything for everyone. The intellectuals that will create the power of Zeus from sun and wind are learning it's the everyday person that is really the engine of our society, and the power behind our past and future successes. Unfortunately, the everyday person has been pushed to the sidelines, initially with the glee and excitement of those that get to the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade the night before to watch those mighty balloons filled with hot air. Most Americans understood it would take some time for the smart folks to get in there and work their magic. But, those on the sidelines are restless and desperate. They stand there now with dirty faces and empty stomachs.

Even as those intellectuals pass by, still floating on hot air, explaining why their magic hasn't worked, the crowd is being told to have faith. To have faith in an ideology that has never worked; to have faith in a giant, bloated, and money-hungry government; to have faith in a system that punishes success and tells us to not only cheer mediocrity, but to embrace it as well. More than anything else the new Enlightenment crowd is telling us to not have faith in their own dreams and aspirations. The tiny successes seen over the last year and a half have been greeted by the President with congratulations to himself, his team, or some brilliant intellectual. I'm not sure if it's possible for the intellectual snobs that saw fit to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Barack Obama a couple months into the job will ever have anything but disdain for the boor who first hammered out for himself an iron spade.

I can only pray that somehow, or someway, President Obama can make such an about-face. In the meantime, those walls of government, and the cascade of new laws, have closed in not only on our hopes but also our chances to bring our house to life.


This Week

There are a slew of earnings reports from retailers this week. There are also enough first and second tier economic releases out to make a difference in the market this week. A couple of weeks ago the market put up a good fight after disappointing jobs numbers were released, but the nonstop onslaught of bad news chipped away at resolve built on things like valuation and future potential. The market reflects themes in society at large, the main one being a lack of confidence. The market can only explode higher on a better-than-expected jobs report, which isn't necessarily a good jobs report per se, just one that clears a low expectation hurdle. Until then, small victories like besting housing consensus could go a long way toward stemming that sinking feeling that comes with a lack of confidence.

On my radio show this weekend, a caller asked about the typical September and October challenges, which brings up a good point. So much of our success and failure is self-fulfilling, so if those months get off to poor starts it could snowball quickly. That being said, I'm a contrarian at heart, and understand this is the time smart money often makes its move while the rest of us are crying in our milk

The DJIA couldn't eclipse the 50-day moving average on the upside Friday, and is now faced with having to hold the 200-day on the downside. This could mean a tight trading range which right now, I would gladly accept.



Although the Street is treating earnings from Lowe's (LOW) with kid gloves, equity futures are lower, and have been listless all morning long. I don't think there are any axes to grind this morning; the bias has turned south and stocks will probably drift.

The Market Sniffed Out the Second Quarter from Lowe's
By: Brian Sozzi, Equity Research Analyst

Today, Lowe's (LOW) released its 2Q10 earnings results to an investor base (and broad market for that matter) that was hungry for color on a few fronts. First, with the first-time homebuyers tax credit having expired, and housing fundamentals softening since, how would this impact home improvement retailers? Second, with specific programs targeted at the consumer already in a home (cash for appliances, etc.) having run their way through the system, to what extent would demand retrench? Third, with the private sector still spinning its wheels on job creation, would home improvement retailers be able to continue to notch progress in larger ticket categories that was seen in 4Q09 and 1Q10? The report from Lowe's made one thing abundantly clear; a recovery in jobs (recovery is different than sub 100K private sector jobs created monthly), rather than stimulus injections, will be the requirement for home improvement retailers to deliver respectable earnings growth in 2H10 amid difficult comparisons and into 2011, where comparisons look tough in the first half. Shares of Lowe's are down 31% since touching a 52-week high on April 30, underperforming Home Depot (HD) shares which have fallen 27% during that timeframe.

Is now a buying opportunity into a company aggressively repurchasing shares, recording sales and earnings growth, and boasting a low 28% debt to equity ratio? Our initial take, it's not such an easy decision. Please visit www.wstreet.com to read remainder of piece.


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Disclaimer: Securities Operations Forum is providing this research to assist investors in determining when to buy and when to sell. All investment decisions are yours and as a result you could make or lose money. Securities Operations Forum, its employees and/or its affiliates and family members may from time to time take positions in the open market or otherwise with respect to the securities discussed, but not have stock ownership equal to or greater than 1% of the outstanding stock of the covered company nor does any employee of Securities Operations Forum sit on the Board of Directors of any covered company. The statements made herein include information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The statements made herein contain general information and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security.

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