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2010-09-07 01:44
PRESIDENT'S PLANS FAIL TO STIMULATE STOCK MARKET

Catch me tonight as I am hosting "Cavuto" on the Fox Business Network at 6:00PM EST

The market doesn't look so hot the day after the White House revealed yet another spending plan, this one to fix 150,000 miles of roads, because that's what's holding back the economy. Oh, and those evil Republicans, the party of "no." On this latest scheme, the GOP should be the party of "Hell No" because its $50.0 billion that could be used more efficiently. Then there is $200.0 billion for research and development and capital investments, which are harder to argue against, but not number one in terms of what could turn the economy around.

We don't need the government to "pull us out of a ditch" as we have the wherewithal to do that ourselves. We just need the government to get out of the way and make it easier for the nation to drive itself out of its current predicament. The economy is spinning its wheels; it's not out of the ditch but has the horsepower to peel out if the coast was clear. In the meantime, small incremental steps are being made, although I'm not sure if things like an improved shadow inventory are the result of the fact so many people have lost their homes already it can only marginally improve.

The market is also under some pressure from action in Europe, where those great vacation nations (I mean that in so many ways) continue to drag. There is also growing opposition toward austerity programs. The market needed a boost today; it hasn't come from the latest economic rescue schemes.

Is there Any Reason to Sniff Around in Unloved Retail Stocks?
By: Brian Sozzi, Equity Research Analyst

It's amazing how a batch of better than expected monthly same-store sales data could brighten, ever so slightly, sentiment on retail sector names. Since the issuance of August same-store sales last week, the S&P Retail Index has unshackled itself from the early July to late August trading range, assuming a position to run to its first resistance point at 440 (currently resides at 420). Let's say for a brief second the 440 mark is eclipsed on a closing basis, driven, perhaps, by positive analyst notes next week (following Labor Day shopping, and after kids return to school and maybe drag their parents back to the malls). If this were to transpire, the trading activity in the sector may be implying the holiday season will sidestep a scrooge like outcome. Therefore one would have to wonder, is a retail stock rally into the end of the year possible? I assign a better than 50/50 chance of that rally ensuing, and here are some of my supporting reasons.

Please visit www.wstreet.com to read remainder of piece.

Housing Shadow Overhang Ebbs
By: David Urani, Research Analyst

Barclays said on Friday that the "shadow" inventory of homes (defined as homes 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure) fell in August by 1.2% to just under 4 million homes. That marks the fifth straight month of decline for shadow inventory according to Barclays, showing that the housing market is indeed making some modest progress on the supply side. Actually, lender Processing Services (LPS) (pictured below) reckons shadow inventory declined for six months straight through July, and if it agrees with Barclays, August would mark the seventh. The figures vary from firm to firm, but looking at the broad collection of evidence points to a true, sustained decrease in shadow inventory over the past several months.

The trend of falling shadow inventory can be attributed to a slowing of incoming new delinquencies as both the rates of decline in employment and home prices have generally stabilized, sending fewer people into unemployment and/or underwater. However, the later stages of delinquency continue to speed up, according to Barclays, with repossessed home inventory rising by 0.2% in August to well over half a million units. That runs generally in line with data from RealtyTrac, which has posted a varying, but generally increasing rate of foreclosure completions. In a nutshell, although new delinquencies are slowing, the huge pipeline of delinquent borrowers (more than 7 million according to LPS) is being cycled through at a quickening pace.

Additionally, Barclays notes that while all home sales have been down significantly, distressed homes have increased as a percentage of total sales. Given the rising rates of repossessions, that makes sense. Barclays says that the distressed proportion of total sales rose to 30% in July from 23% in August. Consequentially, it seems clear that the rising percentage of distressed home sales will pressure prices, as those homes generally sell for a discount. Not only that, but with repossession rates still going higher and sales falling to new depths, inventory will be very difficult to control. Even during some of the higher-demand tax credit months, inventory was still able to inch higher, and with demand having plunged, rising supply is only logical

In conclusion, the falling shadow inventory is good for the long term, but the pipeline of delinquent borrowers is still huge, and as foreclosures cycle through at a fast pace it spells difficulty for the near-term. A dip in prices is still inevitable.



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