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2012-02-15 01:58
MARKETS OSCILLATE

By Carlos Guillen

Equity market are trading rather mixed during today's session, that is with the Dow moderately in losing ground but with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 slightly oscillating in winning territory. Of course, investors continue to be attentive to any news coming from Europe in reference to the Greek bailout situation; however, economic data results here at home continue indicating that the U.S. economy will be able to grow despite the weakness coming from Europe and the slowing growth in China.

As far as the Greek saga is concerned, finance ministers canceled a Brussels meeting slated for today and held a teleconference instead to discuss the conditions for the pending bailout package. While the details are still not known, it is apparent that a decision has been scheduled for February 20. To many, this delay demonstrates the reluctance that European Union leaders are having in keeping Greece as part of the economic group. Moreover, the delay serves to increase the risk of a catastrophic financial failure in the region.

On, perhaps, some positive news from Europe, its economy shrank less than many expected in the fourth quarter as French and German economies helped attenuate weakness from other regions. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area fell 0.3 percent from the prior three months, the first drop since the second quarter of 2009; this was better than the Street's estimate calling for a 0.4 percent decline. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, GDP dropped less than economists projected in the fourth quarter, while France's economy unexpectedly expanded in the same period. Gross domestic product in Germany fell 0.2 percent from the third quarter, beating economists' estimate of a 0.3 percent decline. The French economy grew 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, a complete contradiction to economist's estimates of a 0.2 percent downturn.

In Asia, China pledged to invest in Europe's bailout funds and sustain its holdings of euro assets, giving investors optimism that the region's debt crisis will be overcome. According to the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, China will always adhere to the principle of holding assets of European Union sovereign debt and they will participate in resolving the euro debt crisis.

Here at home, we continued to receive positive economic data, signaling that manufacturing is doing pretty well and will continue to fuel GDP growth this year. The Empire State Manufacturing survey showed acceleration in regional manufacturing activity in February, with the index jumping to 19.5 from 13.5 in January, landing higher than the Street's consensus estimate of 14.0 and representing the best reading since June 2010; more on this below.

Data Roundup
By David Urani

There was some good news today from the NAHB, whose index of homebuilder confidence made a nice gain. The headline number went up to 29 from 25 for February, a strong gain, and that takes it to the highest level since May 2007. Current sales, projected sales and traffic were all higher for the month. This index does tend to have a fairly strong correlation with housing starts, so it is worth paying attention to. This is a good sign as the housing market gets ready to kick off the selling season around Spring. Consequentially housing stocks are seeing a good gain, with several of the public homebuilders up in a range of 2% to 5%.

The February Empire State manufacturing index was another piece of positive economic data, rising to 19.53 (the highest since June 2010) from 13.48. That being said, I thought the components were a little fishy. Most of the sub-indices were actually negative. Major parts like new orders, employment, inventories and prices (both paid and received) decreased during the month. The main driver of the headline increase may have been just modest increases in shipments and employee workweek. We'll take the positive headline reading but the report does smell a little funky; we'll see how the other regional indexes look.

Pekingese iPads

Congratulations to Malachy the Pekingese, winner of the Westminster Dog Show last night. Malachy, like an iPad, has been winning all the popularity contests lately. Also, like an iPad, Malachy is an American dog but technically "made" in China. Unfortunately for iPads, their name, unlike Malachy, is trademarked in China. A company called Proview in China has rights to that name, and as a result the products are being blockaded. While Malachy stands on the podium, iPads are being ripped off the shelves. Online retailers such as Amazon in China are also taking iPads off their sites.

No reason to panic here though, it looks to be a minor disruption that should be resolved without too much of a hassle for Apple. Yet it's still interesting to think that Proview actually wants to get iPad imports and exports banned. As you probably know, iPads are produced in China, making them partially "Pekingese." One can only imagine the anarchy if Apple couldn't ship them out. Surely this will never happen but it does remind one that staying on China's good side is important for the good of the economy. With so many American companies making products over in China, you might consider China as being Top Dog in any successive trade wars like the ones in already going on in solar and auto parts.

No matter for Apple though, which (prior to the afternoon market pullback) was trading up nicely to a new high and contributing to 90% of the gain in the Nasdaq. That's how big of an influence this one stock can have the markets.



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