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2012-01-17 02:04
MARKETS GAIN CONFIDENCE

By Carlos Guillen

Equity markets are clearly seeing the light at the end of the tunnel as macroeconomic data from around the world and from here are home are encouraging equity investors to put more cash to work.

The stock market's positive move today comes mainly after China reported that fourth quarter GDP growth landed at 8.9 percent, above the Street's estimate of 8.7 percent. Growth for all of 2011 slipped to 9.2 percent, a pace last seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis, from 10.4 percent in 2010. While the fourth quarter growth rate was at its weakest pace in two-and-a-half years, the likelihood that Chinese economic leaders will move to stimulate growth is increasing more and more. With inflation rates cooling and with the country's declining net exports trend as a result of the European debt crisis, economic growth is certainly slowing, leaving Chinese economic leaders certainly less restricted to provide the necessary liquidity to boost economic growth.

Also encouraging investors today was news from Germany that its investor confidence had jumped the most on record in January. According to the ZEW Center for European Economic Research, its forward looking index surged to minus 21.6 from minus 53.8 in December, its second straight increase. The result landed above the Street's forecast of minus 49.4 and represented the biggest increase since ZEW started the index two decades ago. While it is still a bit too early to call, this sudden boost of confidence may be an indication that the worst of Europe's sovereign debt crisis may now be in the rearview mirror.

Here are home, a better than expected empire manufacturing data outcome also served to put the market in the green today. The index rose to 13.5 up from 8.2 in December, representing the highest level since April of last year ... more on this below.

While there continue to be positive data flows recently, the Greek debt situation still lingers, and the word on the Street is that the nation will have great difficulty being able to meet its debt obligations this coming March when 14.5 billion euros worth of bonds come due. At the moment Greece is having great difficulty getting private bond holders to accept a voluntary 50 percent loss on their debt holdings in order to receive their next bailout tranche and avoid defaulting on a March debt payment.

Quite surprisingly, on the Spanish front, a strong response to a Spanish Treasury bill auction earlier today helped to ease some debt market concerns and gave some confidence that the upcoming 10-year maturity bond sale will go well this coming Thursday. This week certainly promises to be quite eventful as a slew of macroeconomic data is scheduled for release and as earnings season progresses.

Saudis to the World: Get Used to Triple Digit Oil
David Urani

One thing that's raising a few eyebrows today is Saudi Arabia's statement that they plan to try to hold oil prices at the $100 level for 2012, partially to offset planned expenditures. That has oil futures up to $100.60 from $98.70. Yet, with oil prices staying relatively comfortable in the $95-100 range for the past couple of months, I would be tempted to say that a $100 average is somewhat of a realistic price anyway. Whatever the case, it seems that if prices were to dip lower the Saudis may counteract it with a cutback in production. Certainly $100 oil is a high price for a global economy that is trying to regain its footing, and now the Saudis seem to be pressing us to get used to it.

That being said, we've managed to hit $100 already amid ongoing European problems, signs of slowdown in China, and a pullback in global trade. If there were to be ongoing signs of improvement in the global markets throughout 2012, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil hit $110 fairly quickly.



Empire State Index
The Empire State Manufacturing Index wasn't a huge deal, but still more evidence the economy is on the mends. The headline reading of 13.48 for January was above the 10.50 consensus estimate and above the prior month's reading of 8.19. That's the highest reading since April, led by a jump in new orders. There was also an encouraging increase in employment to 12.09 from 2.33, the highest reading since May.





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