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Week's News

TOO MUCH OIL
EARNINGS REPORTS ARE SAYING SOME THINGS
MORE MIXED SIGNALS
A NEW KIND OF FEAR (FINAL EDITION)
CALLING THE MARKET
HOW IT ALL WORKS (FINAL EDITION)
STRESS THE RESULTS
THE WAY OF THE WORLD (FINAL EDITION)
STRESSING GOOD NEWS FOR EUROPEAN BANKS
SWATTING DOWN THE MARKET
 


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2010-02-19 01:44
MARKET LIKES MEA CULPA

I've watched a lot of this kind of stuff over the years, when OJ Simpson was found not guilty the stock market moved lower. Today, the market was down when Tiger Woods began speaking and as he went down the line of apologies, the market firmed and then shot higher as he wrapped up. I think that it was good and heartfelt. It was better than I expected for something so staged. I'm rooting for him and his family. When he hugged his mother that hit me, I never want to embarrass my mother; I understand how that must have hit him in the gut. As for the market, I think that the session was set up for an intraday rebound when the market overreacted last night.

This was a great week for the market, although I have to add the caveat that volume was never convincing. Yet that was the story last year, too, low volume kept many cash-rich investors on the sidelines. There is a chance that the same could happen again. It's not just individual investors but professionals, too, who watch many things other than the action and indications of the market. Although the latter set has to be concerned about not making their client's money for the second year in a row, individual investors will just rationalize it and whenever the market corrects again assuage their mistake...even if it's ten years from now.

Looking Deeper into the Operations of Home Depot and Lowe's
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst

We have been hard at work in preparation for the upcoming 4Q09 earnings releases from Home Depot Inc. (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) next week. These reports, in many respects, will be some of the most important we have heard from the home improvement retailers in quite a while (despite the fourth quarter usually being the smallest component to the annual base for the sector) given the tangible signs of a turn of the U.S. housing market in recent months. Will improving demand trends in existing home sales and the remodeling market find their way into the FY10 outlooks by the companies? We will touch upon this in our earnings previews. However, we believe it's a prudent exercise to breakdown the companies at the respective points in their life in anticipation of a housing recovery reflecting more prominently on sector sales and earnings in FY10 and FY11. While theoretically each company should benefit from new homeowners/existing homeowners returning to the remodeling market or house flippers sprucing up recently purchased foreclosed/short sales properties, one stock stands to outperform the other. In our view, the outperformer is Home Depot, and is why we have had a buy rating on the stock for our institutional service since March 24, 2009.

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