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MAN UP
SUMMER OF DYING SWANS
TRYING TO APPLY THE BRAKES
MAKING ENTITLEMENTS PERMANENT – REMOVE THE SHAME
BETTER THAN EXPECTED DATA GETS OVERLOOKED
TURNING AROUND THE TROOPS
COOL HAND BERNANKE?
LOWER STANDARDS TO SAVE THE DAY
SHIFTING INTO LOW GEAR
USA WAVING BYE-BYE BIG THINGS
 


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2009-06-08 01:31
LURKING BENEATH THE SURFACE

NEW YORK, NY The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are only off a little more than a percentage point each, but breadth is decidedly lopsided with 2,240 down stocks against 661 up stocks on the NYSE. On one hand, this could be viewed as a typical summer walk-through-the-park session especially after a great weekend in New York. On the other hand, even bulls know that the market is due to give back some ground. Lingering confusion over Friday's jobs report and a lack of leadership has equities grappling with staying on their feet. Big chunks have been taken out of hot stocks and that's reasonable, too. The big question is will those traders sitting on profits blink and move off to the sidelines to reload or will they weather the latest wave of angst?

There are scores of charts that look just like the chart of the S&P 500. Big moves have been made, and now serious resistance points are holding up. For the benchmark S&P 500, that number is 940.0 or so. By the same token, the index continues to hover above key moving averages like the 20-day and 50-day. Nobody is pushing the panic button although I wouldn't be surprised to see boredom do what shorts and bears couldn't do for months...push them out of the market. Of course, by now, we should be accustomed to one challenging session a week and when it happens on Monday it can mean clear sailing the rest of the week. I'm still wondering where the catalyst is coming from because it's one thing for investors to hold but another to get the voyeurs off the sidelines and into the game.



I find it interesting that the president is taking that jobs number from Friday as evidence things are getting better. He must know that revision will take the tally over half a million jobs lost in the month. In fact, jobs are vanishing faster than expected, and this is with the stimulus plan that is supposed to be creating jobs.

Interesting Sectors

The homebuilders are holding up today and I'm not sure why. The group had made a massive rebound but supporting data has been elusive, although there have been occasional "green shoots" in housing. The thing is that the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index has fallen apart, and is now below all its key moving averages.



Afternoon Trade

Having said that, the market needs a spark. It would be truly encouraging if there was late buying because I sense there are some buyers lurking and itching to buy on weakness.


Afternoon Notes from WSS Research Desk

Brian Sozzi

* Retail stocks looks real limp thus far in today's session. I believe it reflects a few things (1) disappointment in the chain-store sales data last week, (2) realization that the holiday season, just because inventory is low, won't mean fat profits for the sector, and (3) the consensus estimate for May retail sales of +0.4% ex. autos seems too optimistic.

* Unfortunately for the market today, the replay of the Bernanke interview on "60 Minutes" yesterday evening is not provoking investors to get into the fray. It was a good study, however, to watch the Fed Chairman's comments for a second time, specifically as he referenced an economic recovery would be underway if banks were to tap private capital sources. It seems to me that most of the comments he served up to the American public on March 16 have held true, so let's hope his assertion on a second half recovery bears fruit as well.

* Retailing is a delicate balance between giving customers what they want (selection and price) and turning a profit, for the most part. Let's extract Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) from the hullabaloo in this particular instance. If you remember, it was plastered all over the news media that the preppy teen apparel retailer was slashing prices in an effort to lure consumers turned off by the high (or "aspirational") price-points. While I have begun to notice price declines in t-shirts, skirts, and shorts I have also noticed the company attempting to sell $140 camis and $60 summer scarves (not so quietly they are seeking to make up the margin being lost on the discounts). The company will continue to suffer as it tries to find a balance in its business during a period of consume thrift.

  

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