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MAN UP
SUMMER OF DYING SWANS
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2009-06-12 01:28
INDIFFERENT SESSION

How yesterday's session ended, with earlier gains almost being wiped clean from the slate, appears to have extended into today's action. A reasonable reading on consumer sentiment was not enough to get the job done, neither was a pullback in yields. The market is moving along a path of indifference, happy to trade in a tight range pending confirmation of a full-fledged economic recovery. The longer such economic data takes to come to fruition the longer it could be until the market ignites further to the upside.

Economic Data

Michigan Sentiment

The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since September this month, with job losses slowing and manufacturing activity getting less bad. However, in an interesting twist, expectations for the next six-months actually decreased. The big wildcard that is making consumers cautious: prices. With crude oil making a very conspicuous move past $7000 per barrel, thoughts of last summer are creeping back into the conscience of many.



Afternoon Notes from Research Desk

Brian Sozzi

* In a rare display, I was absent from (physically that is...I am glued to Bloomberg on the Blackberry) the office yesterday so didn't have the opportunity to express thoughts on the retail sales data. Delving into the numbers, May retail sales excluding automobiles, building materials, and gasoline receipts were flat from April; April was flat from March. For an economy supposedly beyond an inflection point, seeing tepid consumer interest at retail is concerning to the V-shaped recovery thesis.
* Proprietary research is where it's at, meaning bringing something different to the table to better service clients. At the start of the year, I authored a piece touching upon some out of the box themes in retail, attempting to drive home a focal point on what lies ahead for retail sector rather than pontificating on the usual. Thus far, I am already noticing an effort by retailers to facilitate productivity throughout the organization. In my view, the winners in the "new era" of retail will be those investing now in new technologies to match store associate hours to peak demand times or developing merchandise by specific region (also known as "localizing"). If you are seeing anything new and fresh in the mall, I would love to hear; send me an email at brian.sozzi@wstreet.com

David Urani

* The dollar is approximately 1.0% higher today against a basket of currencies on positive comments from Japan. Finance Minister Yosano noted that he has complete trust in U.S. debt, and in fact continues to support the dollar as the global currency. This comes as a relief after the likes of Russia and China expressed concern over America's reckless spending, moving to create a universal global currency based on several currencies.
* You probably thought that bailouts were over by now, but in fact insurance giant Hartford Financial (HIG) became the latest company to get one. Six major insurers were approved to receive funds last month, and Hartford is the first so far to accept. It will take $3.4 billion, and the company will also sell $750.0 million of common stock to shore up its capital position.
* Ashes to ashes : The tobacco industry is about to take a big hit, as a law designed to put tobacco products under FDA authority looks set to pass the house and be signed by the president after it was approved by the senate on Thursday. The law would demand that certain ingredients be disclosed, ban flavored products, restrict advertising, add stricter warning labels, and impose various fines.
* In a move that is sure to reshape the financial sector, money manager Blackrock (BLK) is set to pay $6.6 billion in cash plus $6.9 billion in stock for Barclays' highly respected Barclays Global Investors unit. The combined company will manage a whopping $2.7 trillion in assets. Most of you have probably heard of Blackrock before, but in due time this will surely become a household name.

Carlos Guillen

Overall tech shares are continuing to retreat in today's trading session for the third day in a row. The chip sector, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, has decreased over 3.0% from Thursday's closing price. This recent drop comes a day after National Semiconductor (NSM) posted strong financial results for the May quarter, and we believe the drop is just profit taking.

National reported revenue of $281.0 million, which landed above the Street's consensus estimate of $273.0 million. Revenue contracted by 3.97% sequentially and by 39.2% year over year. The strength in revenue during the quarter, which allowed revenue to come in slightly above guidance, came from strong turns orders. In fact, overall orders increased for the first time in four quarters by 30%, allowing for a sequential increase in backlog and for a book-to-bill ratio above parity. An apparent new handheld product cycle allowed revenue and bookings to come in better than expected. Mobile handheld revenue grew by about 6.0% QOQ and bookings were up 50.0% QOQ.

Strong improvements in cost of goods sold and operating costs allowed the bottom line to come in above all expectations. The company reported a loss of $028 per share, which was higher than the Street's estimate of $0.38 per share. The company is focused on reducing capacity to improve utilization rates. The August quarter outlook was also strong, as revenue is expected to increase by 2.0% to 9.0%. The evidence that the business is improving was simply overwhelming. Bookings increased 30.0%, turns were strong, overall inventory depletions decreased, operating expenses were better than expected, and utilization improved and is expected to improve further as capacity will be significantly reduced.

We expect industry utilization rates to significantly improve during the next couple of quarters as semiconductor companies have considerably cut down on manufacturing capacity. In addition, driven by both supply chain replenishment and some consumer demand, utilization rates should also benefit from a higher level of revenues, that is in comparison to the depressed levels that were reached in the first quarter of this year.

  

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Disclaimer: Securities Operations Forum is providing this research to assist investors in determining when to buy and when to sell. All investment decisions are yours and as a result you could make or lose money. Securities Operations Forum, its employees and/or its affiliates and family members may from time to time take positions in the open market or otherwise with respect to the securities discussed, but not have stock ownership equal to or greater than 1% of the outstanding stock of the covered company nor does any employee of Securities Operations Forum sit on the Board of Directors of any covered company. The statements made herein include information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The statements made herein contain general information and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security.

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