It's not a bloodbath, but it's not a day at the beach either. Come to think of it this is a great day to be at the beach, although they are all pretty crowded with would-be investors and traders. The thing about the market and its manic swings is how it pushes pedestrian investors further away from the idea of investing. The problem with trying to play the market is the spikes come suddenly, so if you are looking for a trade but are not already positioned you chase anyway. Still, the notion of value persists, but taking advantage without enduring bouts of pain is close to impossible.

That's the dilemma, although it really doesn't have to be. I know this is a faster world, or as politicians say when whining about something. In a "24-hour" news cycle, building wealth takes longer, and is harder, especially when watching the day to day gyrations.

On the notion of value, all those big deals came with stocks off 52-week lows and many near multi-year lows.

* DYN
* GENZ
* MFE
* NAL
* POT

More reasons to be angry about TARP, today First Niagara announced it's taking over New Alliance in a deal that will propel the company among the top 25 banks. First Niagara got $184.0 million in TARP money. The bank has been rolled-up already having acquired 57 branches of National City. I'm a major booster for people becoming rich in this nation and I think the rich have rights, too. But, when the rich get richer from bailouts it's a crime. This one doesn't stop.

Retail Showdown a Brewin?
By: Brian Sozzi, Equity Research Analyst

All of this deal activity is beyond exciting! Potash (POT). McAfee (MFE). It wasn't too long ago I came into the office on Monday morning and by the time the opening bell sounded, a half a sheet of paper was filled with announced, or proposed, deals. "Merger Monday" juiced my spirits, juiced the wallets of deal teams, and juiced a market that was ga-ga for buyouts by way of cheap debt. More buyouts, or so went the line of reasoning, meant that higher valuations on risk assets could go on unabated. Forget the fact that private equity, or competitors in a specific sector, will have had to refinance the paper that was loaded onto an acquired company's balance sheet; easily obtained funds were here to stay, the U.S. was on a path to perpetual prosperity, and international markets were roaring ahead. In the end, we are fully aware how this once euphoric tale ended...badly. I won't waste time addressing the house of cards the world was sitting upon, one that we are still attempting to sift through. What I do want as a key takeaway for you clients is that recent deal activity is different than from 2005-2007, and I believe the flow is healthier for our markets.

Please visit www.wstreet.com to read remainder of piece.

HAMP Debacle
By: David Urani, Research Analyst

The government put out its monthly report on the HAMP mortgage modification program for July, and the results are a continuation of previous trends. New trial modifications are dwindling as banks are running out of potential homeowners who haven't already tried to modify their loans. Permanent modifications continue to rise slowly, with 421,804 now enrolled, but total active mortgage modifications continues to fall after reaching a peak in March. 24,577 trials were begun during the month, down from 38,728 in June, and well below the 158,170 peak in October. In total, cumulative trials for the program are at 1.3 million; with a little more than 420,000 qualifying for full assistance; that's a far cry from the Administration's promise to help more than 3 million and at the current rate of growth for the program, it is just about out of gas.

With so much paperwork, busy phone lines, and vague guidelines, HAMP was destined to be a debacle from the get-go. It's sort of ironic that there are reports of some homeowners who intentionally put themselves into default to qualify for the benefits of the program. Generally, mortgage servicers won't even listen to an application unless it is more than 60 days in default, causing some families to forego payments to get assistance. Some of these same families find themselves continuing to miss payments as the months-long paperwork process trudges along. I wonder, for every legitimate enrollee in the program, how many are disingenuous or simply gaming the system. After all, the hundreds of billions of dollars we've thrown at housing, what do we currently have to show for it? The answer is record low pending home sales, near-record low new home sales (up modestly from the record low set in May), and near-record high home repossessions (1% below the March record). It's time to ditch Keynes' playbook before we flush more of our tax money away.

Color on Crude
By: Conley Turner, Research Analyst

Crude oil prices continue to trend lower as market participants ponder the effect that recent economic data is likely to have on future demand. At this juncture, trading the commodity is proving to be very volatile, with the price level now being the lowest in more than six weeks.

The Department of Labor recently released data indicating that claims for unemployment benefits increased at a faster pace than was expected in the previous week. In addition, the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia indicated that manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region actually declined in the month of August. These data points, along with others in recent weeks, have painted a rather gloomy picture as to the state of the broader economy. While the official jobless rate of 9.5% is bad in and of itself, it still does not tell the whole story. This is due to the fact that the measure does not account for those individuals who can't find full-time jobs or who have stopped looking for work altogether.
These folks are not included in the official government statistics, and their inclusion paints a grimmer economic picture. If those people were included, then the jobless number would hover around 16.5%. The fact the unemployment rate remains high suggests that there is not sufficient economic activity to engage this pool of labor.

As such, there is concern among market participants that at least in the near-term, there is poor visibility for any increase in the demand for energy and that inventories will continue to build.

Job Creation Slows
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

In a sign that government has gotten too big (taking us all by surprise, I know), employment increased by 17,800 jobs in the District of Columbia during July, the most since records began back in 1990. This is also the month that the temporary Census jobs ended. Thirty-seven states saw job gains in July, an improvement from June, and about the same as May. That occurred even as many states lost temporary Census jobs. Overall, 143,000 Census jobs across the country ended in July. The jobless rate dropped in 18 states and the District of Columbia last month, the Labor Department said Friday. It rose in 14 states and stayed the same in 18. That's a slowdown from the past three-months when unemployment fell in more than 30 states. There were some bright spots in the Northeast. New York and Massachusetts reported strong job gains. Massachusetts added 19,200 private sector jobs, the largest monthly gain in more than 20 years. Nevada posted the nation's highest unemployment rate for the third straight month, at 14.3%. It took the top spot from Michigan, which held it for four years, in May. Michigan's rate, the second highest, fell slightly to 13.1% from 13.2% in June.

The report showed 11 states had unemployment of 10% or higher. Eighteen states showed a decrease in joblessness, paced by a 0.6% point drop in Alabama. New York City's unemployment rate fell for the seventh straight month, to 9.4% from 9.5%. The state's rate remained unchanged at 8.2%. So President Obama was supposed to be touting the success of the stimulus plan this summer, but all it seems to have been a success for is if you work for the auto industry (think unions) or for the government.

Tech Investors are Scared
By: Carlos Guillen, Research Analyst

So far into today's trading session, the tech sector as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is ramping lower. After peaking during the first half of trading, the index has continued to slide down. What is quite surprising is that rather benign news from important bellwethers such as Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) are not really impressing tech investors at all.

Last night, Dell reported that revenue grew 22% from the year ago level to $155 billion, higher that the Street's consensus estimate of $15.2 billion. Dell's earning per share was also strong, beating expectations by $0.02 at $0.32. The company's revenue guidance for its fiscal year was also strong, expecting growth of 14% to 19%. Perhaps Hewlett Packard did not beat expectations by much, but it was still good considering all the fears of a major pullback in the economy. Hewlett Packard delivered revenue of $30.7 billion, slightly higher than the Street's consensus estimate of $30.4 billion. Earnings per share were in line with expectations at $1.08. Looking at the next quarter, the company provided slightly better than expected revenue guidance at $125.4 billion, higher than the Street's estimate of $124.9 billion, and earnings were in-line.

While I was concerned that inventories might be getting out of hand, both companies acknowledged having inventories under control. Even on Wednesday, Applied Materials (AMAT) also said that memory inventories were lean at OEMs. So it is apparent that there are no inventory issues just yet. However, despite no significant indications of a major pullback in overall demand or out of control inventories, tech investors remain scared. They continue to be discouraged by continuing high unemployment levels and a potential consumer pullback.