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| 2010-02-08 09:21 |
FOLLOW THE BOUNCING BALL...IF YOU CAN (FINAL EDITION)
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When I was a kid we used to play with those little "super balls" that
made unpredictable bounces and created unlimited fun. The harder you threw it against the wall the wilder the gyrating bounces. Adding to the fun was
the thrill of knowing that if there was another vase broken, there would be serious hell to pay. Well, Friday's session was like playing with one of
those super balls, although I can't say it was fun for everyone. It was certainly a thrill ride. It was one of those sessions that had people ducking
for cover and writing off the entire market by two o'clock and then licking their chops over potential opportunities by the closing bell.
The
market was all over the place as investors grappled with understanding the true message from the jobs report, figuring out net-net what all the
earnings reports were saying about the future, and simply dealing with the notion that high deficits (like ours) is strangling several European
countries into some kind of submission. What I take from the session is that there is a ton of money on the sideline ready to pounce. Last year there
were several occasions when the market snapped out of a rapid drift or freefall to stage massive upside moves. I think that the same set up is in
place right now. I'm not sure that there will be an event that turns it around, rather the swings that sees an exhaustion of sellers that allows those
on the sidelines a chance to leap at inflection points may be in order. There is a good chance that we got one of those inflection points last Friday.
But, if that was the turning point what was the catalyst?
For some reason the media doesn't talk much about consumer credit even though the
consumer is 2/3 of the nation's GDP. There is much debate over how to jumpstart the economy, especially now that the federal government has botched
the $787 billion stimulus plan so badly that another plan (this time officially called a jobs bill, although the first time out it was unofficially
called a jobs bill) is in the works. It seems the things that have to happen is that people with jobs keep more of the money they make and small
businesses have access to cash. Forget the gimmicks. While there has been less demand for credit among consumers let's be real, people want more
access to credit not less. It's not that folks are eager to go out and spend money on things they don't need but 2009 was marked by massive slicing of
credit lines and higher banking fees. Confidence is important and people feel better when there is something akin to a safety net in the form of more
credit, not less.
Then there is the issue of small businesses having greater access to funds. Again, forget the gimmicks about hiring or
buying a new copier these businesses need funding to forward their businesses. Ironically, one of the best news items from last week was Christopher
Dodd saying he is going to push through with consumer financial protection legislation without the input of Republicans in the committee. I think
that's great because it takes this action one step closer to dying on the vine instead of lingering sinisterly like a coiled spring ready to strangle
the banking industry.
It doesn't help that the White House continues to say healthcare reform isn't dead and there is scuttlebutt of deals
that are even more lopsided than those egregiously cut in December. I think that banks are prepared to lend, but many might hold off now to get a
payoff from new government programs in the works.
Consumer credit is broken up into revolving credit and non-revolving credit. The former are
credit cards where rates adjust and payments are made over a short period time, while non-revolving can be things like cars and student loans. There
is no doubt that credit card issuers have been abusive and there needs to be strong laws regarding penalties, fine print, and eligibility. I like the
idea of age limits and tackling aggressive practices aimed at young people, but what I haven't seen is education, and not just for 21-year old
students. Consumer education should be taught in all high schools and reiterated in college. The fact is that all consumers should receive some
education and take a test before they can activate their credit cards. Because, as awful as the industry has been, the fact is that people have harmed
themselves with poor use of credit cards.
Let's not forget that it wasn't that long ago when credit cards were mostly for rich people. It was
a super reward for their banking business. Now it's an integral component to people meeting their daily financial obligations. In fact last year was
the first time in the history of this nation that Americans spent more via credit cards than cash or checks. That's amazing considering revolving
credit decreased to $2.46 trillion from $2.56 trillion in 2009. Overall consumer credit declined for the eleventh straight month, and 14 out of 15
past months. But the decrease of $1.73 billion was much better than the revised decline of $21.83 billion for November.
 I'm not sure how revolving credit will go in the months ahead, but it should be
rocky and not uplifting per se. In December, it decreased $8.55 billion after posting a decline of $13.79 billion in November. But non-revolving
credit might be the place where we see the economy gain traction. In December, non-revolving credit increased $6.82 billion after a decrease of $8.24
billion in November. It is interesting to note that consumer spending dropped so dramatically in November and December, but I think January will see
an upside surprise. (This week the Retail Sales number could be the most import market-moving economic data release along with initial jobless
claims, which have been alarmingly rising.)
 Global Debt Crisis
The Group of Seven reiterated its
commitment to spend its way out of recession and also its determination to get banks to pay for their reckless non-stop spending. Of course it's a
farce that spending by these nations is focused on some kind of recovery when in fact it's all about redistributing money to favored causes. Our own
$787 billion stimulus bill is a great example of this, billed as a shovel-ready jobs bill, the money has been used to enlarge the government and pay
off unions. The notion of using public animosity toward banks as a cover to spend even more is doomed to failure. If indeed they are going to make
banks pay for their spending then its means they will not heed all the warning signs on debt and deficits. According to the OECD, G-20 nations will
have a debt to GDP ratio of 118% by 2014. I just don't see how attacking banks will free up capital for Main Street. I also think that we all should
be offended by these elite leaders using our legitimate anger at banks as a ruse to spend more and more and more.
The only hope is in-fighting
might derail this ridiculous game plan. Things like the Tobin Tax on currency transactions only open the door for additional taxes on cross boarder
financial dealings.
According to ICO, there were 212 million unemployed people in the world last year. That number, up 34 million from 2008,
is really shocking as a large percentage of those unemployed are young people sure to become restless. In developed and European Union countries
unemployment has climbed to 8.4% from 6.0% in 2008 and 5.7% in 2007. As for U.S. employment, I have to say that those seasonal adjustments may have
painted too rosy a picture. Excluding seasonal adjustments:
* Retail employment: -556,000 * Construction: -358,000 | 
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