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2009-06-16 01:49
BIAS SHIFTS FROM TRUE NORTH

The market continues to struggle. There was the kind of news today that invigorated bulls all spring when housing starts and permits soared. But, the reaction to mixed guidance from Best Buy (BBY) underscores the desire among investors to have solid news to move the needle from here.

Industrial production came in at -1.1% reading and capacity utilization edged down to a reading of 68.3. Estimates for these data releases were -1.0% and 68.4, respectively. This was the lowest utilization reading since the series began in 1968.



This middle of the road diplomacy may work with nations looking for increased aid from America but it's not working well with two of the three members of the "axis of evil." I understand President Obama is loath to pick up on anything Bush did or said (except wild spending) but the olive branch may have to give way to the tree branch (which is what I had to endure on occasion) or maybe a big stick. At some point America has to be outraged. At some point, we have to push back against the knuckleheads that are the leaders of Iran and North Korea.

America may not want to be seen as interfering but the signs of dissidents are written in English...it's clear they are directed at the white knight. It's clear that a large swath of the Iranian public wants the president and the cavalry to come riding to the rescue. I'm no diplomat but what's happening in Iran could play out in different ways around the world and in America. People expect incredible stuff from the White House and in some cases they will confuse hope with real initiative.

I think that U.S. cities could see unrest next summer if joblessness persists, particularly among African Americans. Many will still see the president in a positive light, and if they go to the streets somehow there will be another scapegoat...maybe George Bush. The point I'm trying to make now is that turning the cheek or placating really bad people only emboldens them to move onto even more outrageous behavior. This is a golden opportunity in Iran to play it too close to the vest and it could be a monumental mistake. I know we don't want to force democracy on other nations but can we openly root.

Thoughts from WSS Research Desk

David Silver

* Taxpayers you can sleep easy tonight (or at least easier) knowing that everyone who asks for government help will not receive it. Last week the auto parts supplier industry asked the government for another $8 - $10 billion of aid additional aid (already got $5 billion a few months back). However, in a first for the administration, the auto task force said "No" to the industry. Is a wave of bankruptcies next? Probably not, but that is what the industry has indicated would be the next step.

  

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