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TOO MUCH OIL
EARNINGS REPORTS ARE SAYING SOME THINGS
MORE MIXED SIGNALS
A NEW KIND OF FEAR (FINAL EDITION)
CALLING THE MARKET
HOW IT ALL WORKS (FINAL EDITION)
STRESS THE RESULTS
THE WAY OF THE WORLD (FINAL EDITION)
STRESSING GOOD NEWS FOR EUROPEAN BANKS
SWATTING DOWN THE MARKET
 


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2010-02-25 02:01
BEHIND THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS

Suffice it to say the raft of economic data received in recent weeks has left much to be desired. Seemingly long gone are those days when economic data was beating expectations following the sharp downturn in global activity post the Lehman Brothers fallout. 4Q GDP growth of close to 6% is but a distant memory, replaced by the reality that the recovery from economic Armageddon will have its fits and starts. Fresh reads on new home sales, home prices, durable goods, jobless claims have joined forces with below consensus data sets overseas, such as Germany, and doubts as to whether the PIIGS will navigate through a precarious debt situation. Sprinkle in the Chinese attempting to head off a potential property bubble, and well, the picture for global growth in the second half of the year becomes cloudy.

I laid eyes on a very interesting article at 3 am this morning, one disseminated by USA Today that provided on the ground perspective of what's happening in the U.S. economy. The personal accounts speak volumes as to how the foundation of the economy was uprooted in 2009, and why a recovery to sustainable trend growth will be a long winding path. In fact, instead of the Administration trying to force through healthcare reform greater attention should be assigned to job creation by the teaching of new skill sets. How are out-of-work individuals able to return to school and learn a new trade, thereby developing a platform to reignite long-term growth, if deficit spending may just drive taxes and inflation higher? How can we compete on an ever increasingly global stage when former operators of machines are now polishing floors at a local school, since corporations must move operations to lower cost overseas countries (such as China and India). Take a read of the following accounts:

Christopher
* Former trade: installing metal roofs
* Former annual salary: $80,000
* Current trade: being unemployed
* Current compensation: $385 a week of unemployment benefits
* Changes to living habits: much lower food bill, hardly leaves the house
David
* Former trade: ductwork installer
* Former hourly wage rate: $32.00
* Current trade: truck driver
* Current hourly wage: $21.00
* Changes to living habits: away from home, varying schedule
Carl
* Former trade: cabinet installer
* Current trade: being an unemployed airplane mechanic student

Drinking in the News
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

Today, the Coca-Cola Company (KO) announced that it is closing in on a deal to acquire the North American operations of its largest bottler, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE). This type of move may sound familiar, as main rival PepsiCo (PEP) is in the midst of completing a takeover of two of its largest bottlers, Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) and PepsiAmericas (PAS). Under the terms of the cashless deal, Coke would give up its 34% stake in Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc., worth approximately $3.4 billion, and assume $8.88 billion in debt. Coca-Cola will also sell the Norwegian and Swedish operations to Coca-Cola Enterprises for $822.0 million. The deal wouldn't be a complete takeover of CCE, as some of Coke's bottlers in Europe would be transferred over to CCE in a swap type transaction. The Coca-Cola Company has acquired troubled bottlers around the world, and after improving operations and effectively turning operations around, it then sells those operations to its vast network of global bottlers.

It is an interesting shift in policy for the Coca-Cola Company, which as of a few months ago at its analyst meeting in Atlanta had specifically voiced opposition to acquiring any of its bottlers. CEO Muhtar Kent had been quite convincing in his support for the bottlers' CEOs that were in attendance. However, this morning, he said "We have a strong and unrelenting belief in our unique and thriving global bottling system. Our new North American structure will create an unparalleled combination of businesses,"

Refer to our website, www.wstreet.com for the remainder of the piece.

Jobs Will Disappoint Next Week
By: Carlos Guillen, Research Analyst

So far this month, the signs for the unemployment rate are not looking very good. This morning's initial claims result for the week ending February 20 totaled 496,000, which increased from the 474,000 revised number reported for the prior week and landed above the Street's estimate of 460,000. While the overall trend in initial claims were favorable for most of 2009, since mid November it appears that the jobs situation is rather stagnant, oscillating around the 450,000 mark. And if we look at the trailing four-week average, which tends to smooth out some of the data noise, we can observe that the trend has been rather negative. Although the increase is not sharp, the direction is certainly not encouraging at all.

While the consumer had been feeling more optimistic about the jobs situation just about last month, now this sentiment is changing. In fact, just two days ago the Conference Board announced that its consumer confidence index ticked lower to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in January, well under the Street's expectation of 55.0. Consumers are certainly becoming more concerned with the current business conditions, job market, and their stagnant incomes. And while the unemployment rate in a January did tick lower to 9.7% from 10%, the Street is now expecting this rate to increase to 9.8% for February.

We believe the current initial claims level is still extremely high. In our opinion, an initial claims level of less than 400,000 would need to be reached in order to help bring the unemployment rate lower. At the current rate, given the initial claims figures we've been witnessing, we believe the unemployment rate is likely to disappoint when it is revealed next week.

Did Goldman Help Greece Cheat?
By: David Urani, Research Analyst

Those credit default swaps are at it again. First they were blamed for the housing and financial collapses, and now they are being blamed for concealing Greece's debt load. Both the Federal Reserve and the SEC are now looking into Goldman Sachs and other banks' dealings with Greece, which they say allowed the country to falsely state the amount of debt it was carrying for nine years. On top of that, several banks, including Goldman, are alleged to have pooled these assets into an index that allowed traders to bet on Greece's debt problems; the downside of that is that as more investors buy in, the higher Greece's debt costs go, making it harder to pay its debts back.

German Chancellor Merkel called these derivative products "scandalous," and it is one of the reasons that Greece is now struggling to get some kind of aid from the rest of the EU. Not only does it hurt Greece's chance of getting a proper bailout, but it's another round of bad PR for the U.S.A. and our questionable banking system.

Speaking of concealing debt, Freddie Mac posted a $6.47 billion quarterly loss yesterday (that's $21.6 billion for the year). It will be forced to tap another $6.47 billion Freddie from its unlimited Federal lifeline. Good thing Freddie is still considered neither private nor public, making that $6.47 billion Federal expense "off budget".

  

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