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TOO MUCH OIL
EARNINGS REPORTS ARE SAYING SOME THINGS
MORE MIXED SIGNALS
A NEW KIND OF FEAR (FINAL EDITION)
CALLING THE MARKET
HOW IT ALL WORKS (FINAL EDITION)
STRESS THE RESULTS
THE WAY OF THE WORLD (FINAL EDITION)
STRESSING GOOD NEWS FOR EUROPEAN BANKS
SWATTING DOWN THE MARKET
 


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2010-03-04 02:14
ANOTHER DAY OF ANGST (BUT RAYS OF HOPE, TOO)

The final countdown has begun. We go through it every month but it takes on a fresh sensation each time. The jobs report looms large as it can set the tone for the market for the next 30 days. The week has gone according to script. We came out of the gate with vigor on Monday but have since been sideways as investors digest data that has been mixed, though on balance, better than expected. Today's data was also mixed, with the big standouts being productivity trends and pending homes sales. Pending home sales tumbled big time. Consensus on the Street was +1.0% but instead the actual result was -7.6%. Initially, the news sent equities lower but when the industry explained this number was skewed by the weather all was forgiven. There is a difference; however, to rationalization that stops the market from moving lower and rationalization that provides a spark.



To be sure, there continues to be positive signs including:

* Wal-Mart (WMT) raised its dividend, continuing a trend that underscores growing confidence the worst is over. Our retail sector analyst, Brian Sozzi, reiterated his buy rating on the stock following the recent earnings release.

* AK Steel (AKS) is adding a surcharge of $330.0 per ton. The new rates begin in April on electric steel products.

Then there is the initial jobless claims which provided the "phew" moment of the session. After a shocker last week, and several weeks of trending higher, people filing for first time unemployment benefits dipped a little. Of course we have to get the number down under 400,000 before celebrating, but considering the direction we were heading it's a big relief not to have a "5" handle on this report.



On the international front the situation in Greece looks rosier today as their auction has attracted more than $21.0 billion in bids (only $5 billion was up for sale). The moral of the story is that Germany and France have no choice except to bailout their fellow EU/Euro member.



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